Summary: Belief in conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic predicts resistance to vaccination and to preventive behaviors such as mask-wearing.
Source: Annenberg Public Policy Center
Belief in conspiracy theories about the coronavirus is both persistent and consequential. Researchers at the Annenberg Public Policy Center find that people who endorse COVID-19 conspiracy theories are less likely to take preventive measures and more likely to be hesitant about a future vaccine.
A national two-wave panel survey, conducted in late March and again in mid-July 2020, tracked the same respondents over four months. The study shows that conspiracy beliefs about the pandemic remained steady over that period and that those beliefs in March predicted lower uptake of protective behaviors in July, including mask-wearing and willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine when available.
“Conspiracy theories are an obstacle to controlling the spread of COVID-19,” said Dan Romer, research director at the Annenberg Public Policy Center, co-author of the study with APPC director Kathleen Hall Jamieson. “Controlling the pandemic depends on high rates of mask-wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene now — and vaccination when a safe and effective vaccine is available.”
The study was published in the journal Social Science & Medicine.
Widespread belief in conspiracy theories
The researchers measured belief in three specific COVID-19 conspiracy theories among 840 U.S. adults who completed both waves of the survey. High proportions endorsed these ideas at both time points:
- In March, 28% believed the Chinese government created the coronavirus as a bioweapon; by July this rose to 37%.
- In March, 24% believed some CDC officials were exaggerating the threat to damage Donald Trump’s presidency; this rose to 32% in July.
- In March, 15% believed the pharmaceutical industry created the virus to increase sales of drugs and vaccines; this rose slightly to 17% in July.
Reliance on conservative media or on social media was associated with greater endorsement of these conspiracy theories. This finding builds on earlier APPC work showing that social media users and some conservative media audiences were more likely to hold COVID-19-related misinformation and conspiracy beliefs early in the pandemic.
“Conspiracy theories persist because they offer seemingly simple explanations for complex, uncertain events, exploit distrust of institutions, and often assert claims that are difficult to disprove,” Jamieson said.
The authors note that countering the impact of these beliefs will require sustained public health communication across mainstream outlets and targeted outreach on conservative platforms where conspiratorial claims have spread.
Conspiracy beliefs and vaccine intentions
Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories was linked to lower perceived threat from the virus, fewer preventive actions, greater doubts about vaccine safety, and reduced intention to be vaccinated. Over time the gap in vaccination intentions between believers and non-believers widened.
In March, respondents who did not endorse the conspiracies were 2.2 times more likely to intend to receive a COVID-19 vaccine than those who strongly endorsed them. By July this difference had grown to 3.5 times.
- March: 37% of strong conspiracy believers intended to be vaccinated, compared with 81% of non-believers.
- July: 22% of strong conspiracy believers intended to be vaccinated, compared with 76% of non-believers.
Those who believed the COVID-19 conspiracies also tended to express doubts about the safety of routine vaccines such as MMR, which likely contributed to hesitancy about a COVID-19 vaccine.
Conspiracy beliefs and mask-wearing
The first wave of the survey was carried out before the CDC advised widespread mask use in early April 2020. By July, mask-wearing behavior differed sharply by belief in conspiracies: 62% of those who most strongly believed the conspiracies reported wearing a mask every day they went outside and were exposed to others, compared with 95% of those who did not hold those beliefs.
Put another way, non-believers were about 1.5 times more likely to report daily mask use outside the home when interacting with others than respondents who strongly believed the conspiracies.
Group differences
The study found higher conspiracy belief rates among members of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups — a concerning result given that these communities have borne a disproportionate share of COVID-19’s health and economic impacts. Older adults were less likely to endorse the conspiracies, which is important because older people face higher risk of severe outcomes from the disease.
Political ideology showed different relationships depending on the outcome: changes in vaccination intentions from March to July were not strongly tied to political ideology, but mask-wearing in July was more common among liberals than conservatives. Media diet mattered: conservative and social media reliance predicted conspiracy belief and lower uptake of preventive actions, while mainstream television news use predicted greater adoption of both preventive behaviors and vaccination intentions.
The survey
The research used a national probability sample of 1,050 U.S. adults surveyed March 17–27, 2020, with a follow-up of 840 of the same individuals July 10–21, 2020. Analyses focus on the 840 respondents who completed both waves.
Both survey waves were completed before a separate high-profile public accusation directed at CDC scientists surfaced in September 2020.
About this research article
Source:
Annenberg Public Policy Center
Contacts:
Michael Rozansky – Annenberg Public Policy Center
Image Source:
The image is in the public domain.
Original Research: Open access — “Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.” by Dan Romer et al., Social Science & Medicine.
Abstract
Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Rationale
The COVID-19 pandemic poses extraordinary challenges to public health.
Objective
Because the coronavirus is highly contagious, broad adoption of preventive measures — masking, physical distancing, and ultimately vaccination — is necessary to control viral spread. The authors tested whether acceptance of conspiracy theories circulating in mainstream and social media early in the U.S. pandemic was associated with lower uptake of preventive behaviors and lower vaccination intentions.
Method
A national probability survey of U.S. adults (N = 1,050) was conducted in March 2020, with a follow-up of 840 of the same individuals in July 2020. Measures included preventive behaviors, vaccination intentions, conspiracy beliefs, perceived threat, vaccine safety beliefs, political ideology, and media exposure.
Results
Belief in three COVID-19 conspiracy theories remained stable across the two waves and was inversely related to perceived threat, preventive actions (including mask use), perceived vaccine safety, and intention to be vaccinated. Conspiracy beliefs measured in March predicted lower mask-wearing and vaccination intentions in July, even after adjusting for earlier behavior and intentions. While conservative media reliance and political ideology predicted preventive behaviors, vaccination intentions were less politically driven. Mainstream television news use predicted both preventive actions and vaccine intentions.
Conclusions
Because conspiracy beliefs are linked to resistance to prevention and future vaccination, addressing conspiracy theories and vaccine misinformation is critical for limiting COVID-19 spread. Reducing these barriers will require sustained public health messaging across mainstream outlets and focused efforts on media platforms and communities where conspiratorial claims have taken hold.