Summary: A new study led by the University of Leeds, using data from the Connected Bradford project, finds that children assessed as not “school ready” at age 4–5 are significantly more likely to be out of education, employment, or training (NEET) by 16–17 and to achieve lower GCSE results. The findings underline the potential of early school readiness assessments to identify children at risk and to guide targeted early interventions.
Researchers analysed linked data for 8,118 young people from Bradford to examine how the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) measure of school readiness relates to later outcomes. Children who did not reach a “Good Level of Development” at ages 4–5 were considerably more likely to be NEET at 16–17 and less likely to reach expected GCSE attainment thresholds.
Key facts
- School readiness at age 4–5 is a strong predictor of later NEET status and lower GCSE attainment.
- In this study, 11% of children who were not school ready became NEET by age 16–17, compared with 4% of children classed as school ready.
- Among those not school ready, 44% achieved level 2 GCSE benchmarks (equivalent to grade 4 or above in English, Maths, and five subjects overall), versus 77% among those assessed as school ready.
Study overview
The study, published in BMC Public Health, used routinely collected linked records from the Connected Bradford data bank to trace outcomes from the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) at 4–5 years to NEET status and GCSE achievement at 16–17. Children were classified as “school ready” if they met the EYFSP threshold for a Good Level of Development. The research team used probit regression and structural equation modelling to examine the relationship between early readiness, later academic attainment, and NEET risk.
Findings and interpretation
School readiness was significantly associated with NEET status at 16–17. A higher proportion of children who were not school ready later became NEET (11%) compared with those who were school ready (4%). Much of the increased NEET risk was linked to lower academic attainment at GCSE, although the analysis also identified a direct effect of early readiness on NEET outcomes. Socioeconomic deprivation and identification of Special Educational Needs (SEN) were additional, strong predictors of NEET.
The study’s results show that risk factors for disengagement in late adolescence are detectable early in a child’s school life. Because EYFSP data are routinely collected in England for millions of children, these measures could be used pragmatically to identify pupils who might benefit from targeted support in primary school to reduce the risk of disengagement later on.
Implications for policy and practice
Lead author Dr Matthew Warburton, Research Officer at the School of Psychology, University of Leeds, emphasised that these findings point to clear, early indicators of disadvantage and opportunity for intervention: schools already collect the relevant data, so they are well placed to initiate early support programs. Senior author Dr Amy Atkinson, Lecturer in Psychology at Lancaster University, noted that EYFSP information could be deployed to flag pupils at increased risk of becoming NEET and to prioritize resources in communities with greater need.
The research team — including collaborators from Lancaster University and the Bradford Institute for Health Research — argue that primary schools can act as public health partners in preventive strategies aimed at reducing long-term social, educational, and health inequalities linked to NEET outcomes.
Limitations and next steps
The authors highlight that NEET status was assessed only at ages 16–17 due to data availability. Further research is needed to track the persistence of NEET risk beyond this age range and to evaluate which early interventions most effectively change the trajectory for children identified as not school ready.
Funding: The study was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the UK Prevention Research Partnership, the Medical Research Council, and an anonymous donation to the University of Leeds to support investigation of NEET. Additional individual fellowships supported some investigators. Funders did not influence study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or manuscript preparation.
About the research
Author: Mia Saunders, University of Leeds
Source: University of Leeds
Original research: “Risk of not being in employment, education or training (NEET) in late adolescence is signalled by school readiness measures at 4–5 years” by Matthew Warburton et al., published in BMC Public Health (open access).