Summary: New research shows that managers who combine gut instinct with simple decision-making heuristics can make decisions that are just as accurate—but faster—than those relying predominantly on data-driven methods.
Source: City University London
Managers who pair intuition with straightforward decision rules often arrive at outcomes as accurate as those produced by data-only approaches, but they do so more quickly, according to a new study.
Researchers from the Business School (formerly Cass), King’s Business School, and the University of Malta examined how decision-makers in innovation-focused organizations balance data analysis, personal experience, and simple heuristics when deciding on new projects. Their findings suggest that an exclusive focus on data can slow down decisions and does not always guarantee better results—particularly in situations of high uncertainty.
The study drew on responses from 122 companies across advertising, digital media, publishing, and software sectors. It highlights that when future outcomes are highly uncertain, relying heavily on complex data models may be counterproductive. In these contexts, experienced managers who incorporate their instincts and apply simple decision rules can reach sound judgments more efficiently. The report notes that historical examples—such as the early rejections of what became a major book series—illustrate how a lack of data can obscure potential, reinforcing the value of judgment and simple heuristics in uncertain situations.
While many large organizations are increasing investments in data capabilities—one survey cited in the study found that a substantial majority of Fortune 1000 firms reported rising investment in data initiatives—this research suggests that more data is not always the optimal solution. Speed, practical experience, and straightforward decision rules can be equally important, especially when data is sparse or signals are ambiguous.
As part of the study, managers were asked to describe the approach they used for their most recent innovation project. They reported how much they relied on data, instinct, and a range of simple heuristics—mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making. The most commonly reported heuristics included:
- Majority: choosing the option preferred by the largest number of team members.
- Tallying: scoring options by counting positive attributes and selecting the one with the highest tally.
- Experience: deferring to the preference of the most experienced team member.
Managers also assessed whether they believed they had made the right decision and reported how quickly they arrived at it. The results showed that many managers used their instincts as much as they used available data, and that tallying was the most frequently applied simple strategy. In other words, rather than relying only on elaborate analytics, teams often benefited from combining a pragmatic counting approach with experienced judgment.
Dr. Oguz A. Acar, Reader in Marketing at the Business School and a co-author of the report, commented: “This research shows that data-driven decision-making is not the panacea in all situations and may not result in increased accuracy when facing uncertainty. Under extreme uncertainty, managers, particularly those with more experience, should trust the expertise and instincts that have propelled them to such a position. The nous developed over years as a leader can be more effective than an analytical tool which, in situations of extreme uncertainty, could act as a hindrance rather than a driver of success.”
Practical implications for leaders and organizations include recognizing when to prioritize speed and experience over exhaustive data collection, and when to integrate simple heuristics with available evidence. In innovation settings—where outcomes are inherently unpredictable—encouraging experienced judgment, fostering clear majority-based processes when appropriate, and using tallying to simplify trade-offs can help teams move forward without getting bogged down in analysis paralysis.
The study does not argue for abandoning data analytics; rather, it highlights the limits of data in uncertain environments and recommends a balanced approach. Leaders should assess the level of uncertainty, the quality and availability of data, and the experience on their teams to determine the right mix of analysis and intuition. When data is limited or noisy, well-applied heuristics and seasoned judgment can produce timely and effective decisions.
About this decision making research news
Source: City University London
Contact: Luke Lambert – City University London
Image: The image is in the public domain
Original Research: The findings will appear in Psychology and Marketing